South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-23) & Climate Services Users Forum (CSUF)


About The Event

Background/ Context:
South Asian climate is influenced by both tropical (Oct-Dec) and temperate mid-latitude (Dec-Feb) circulation systems during the winter months. Southern parts of South Asia, including peninsular India, Sri Lanka, Maldives and southern coastal areas of Myanmar are influenced by North East Monsoon (Re-establishment of prevalent north easterly trade-wind regime over South Asia associated with the southward movement of the ITCZ), while extra-tropical activity dominated by “Western disturbances” influence the northern parts of the region including Afghanistan, Pakistan, north India, Bhutan, Nepal, Bangladesh and Myanmar. It is therefore necessary that seasonal forecasts for winter season be issued at two different times – one during September/October for southern region and the other during November/December for northern region. The crucial role of winter rains and the growing recognition of the benefits of SASCOFs in articulating and sharing seasonal climate information have led to the need for regularly conducting winter SASCOFs. Winter sessions of SASCOF’s were started in 2015 keeping in view the importance of winter seasonal climate to key user sectors. The first winter SASCOF session was held in October 2015, at Chennai, Tamil Nadu India, followed by Nay Pyi Taw, Myanmar in 2016, Male, Maldives in 2017, Colombo, Sri Lanka in 2018 and Thiruvananthapuram, India in 2019.Last two years (2020 and 2021), SASCOF Winter Sessions were held online due to CoViD-19 pandemic.

The objective of the forum is to prepare consensus seasonal climate information on regional scale that provides a consistent basis for preparing national level outlooks. Such platforms also serve to interact with user sector to understand and enhance the use of climate information. The SASCOF-23 is scheduled to be held in online due to CoViD-19 pandemic. The Regional Climate Centre (RCC), Pune of India Meteorological Department (IMD), Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early-warning System for Asia and Africa (RIMES) and WMO (World Meteorological Organization) shall provide technical support and be involved in organizing this online session of SASCOF.

Expected Outcome:
SASCOF-23 will prepare a climate outlook for the 2022 winter season covering the months from October to December. NMHSs from SASCOF member countries Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka, as well as several regional and global experts will jointly prepare this consensus outlook. The CSUF session will focus on interface with users from the various application sector to interpret seasonal climate information and understand their specific needs with a view to further customizes climate information.
Overview of the Agenda :
Day 1 & 2: September 26-27, 2022 – Technical session will consider available seasonal prediction output from WMO Global Producing Centers (GPCs) and the Lead Centre for LRF MME together with presentation of country forecasts and discussions.
Day 3: September 28, 2022 – Finalizing draft consensus statement for seasonal climate outlook through E-mail communications with SASCOF participants.
Day 4: September 29, 2022 – User oriented sessions focused on sharing, understanding and interpreting the seasonal climate outlook.
All National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) of South Asia; invited national and international experts; experts from WMO and RIMES; experts from RCCs (Tokyo Climate Center (JMA), UK Met Office and other GPCs, IMD and Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM).

List of Participants

South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-23) & Climate Services Users Forum (CSUF)

Sr. No.Nominated Participants from NMHSOrganizationCountry
1Khayber Rahmani  Afghanistan Meteorological Department (AMD)Afghanistan
2Fawad AuobiAfghanistan Meteorological Department (AMD)Afghanistan
3Dr. Md. Abdul MannanBangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD)Bangladesh
4Mr. S. M. Quamrul HassanBangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD)Bangladesh
5Ms. Monju SubbaNational Center for Hydrology and Meteorology (NCHM)Bhutan
6Ms. Phuntsho WangmoNational Center for Hydrology and Meteorology (NCHM)Bhutan
8Ms. Chaw Su HlaingDepartment of Meteorology and Hydrology (DMH)Myanmar
9Ms. Su Myat NaingDepartment of Meteorology and Hydrology (DMH)Myanmar
10Mr  Nasooh IsmailMaldives Meteorological Services (MMS)Maldives
11Ms. Azeema AhmedMaldives Meteorological Services (MMS)Maldives
12Mr. Mohamed AslamMaldives Meteorological Services (MMS)Maldives
13Mr. Sudarshan HumagainDepartment of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM)Nepal
14Mr. Bikash NepalDepartment of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM)Nepal
15Dr. SarfarazPakistan Meteorological Department (PMD)Pakistan
16Dr. Muhammad AfzaalPakistan Meteorological Department (PMD)Pakistan
17Dr. Zaheer Ahmad BabarPakistan Meteorological Department (PMD)Pakistan
18Ms.A.R.P.WarnasosoriyaDepartment of Meteorology (DoM)Sri Lanka
19Mr.T.P.N.PeirisDepartment of Meteorology (DoM)Sri Lanka
20Ms Himesha AlagiyawannaDepartment of Meteorology (DoM)Sri Lanka
Sr. No.List of GPC/RCC PresentersOrganizationCountry
1Dr.Takashi YamadaJapan Meteorological Agency (JMA)Japan
2Dr. Nemoto NoboruJapan Meteorological Agency (JMA)Japan
3Dr. Takahashi KiyotoshiJapan Meteorological Agency (JMA)Japan
5Dr. Nachiketa AcharyaEarth System Modeling, Analysis, and Data (ESMAD) , Penn State UniversityUSA
6Dr. Hyun-Ju LeeLong-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble (LRFMME) WMOSouth Korea
7Dr. Bohar SinghInternational Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI)India
Sr. No.List of International Organization ParticipantsOrganizationCountry
1Dr. Wilfran Moufouma OkiaWorld Meteorological Organization (WMO)Switzerland
2Ms. Anahit HovsepyanWorld Meteorological Organization (WMO)Switzerland
Sr. No.IITM Participants PuneOrganizationCountry
1Dr. R. KrishnanIndian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM)India
2Dr. A. K SahaiIndian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM)India
3Dr. Suryachandra RaoIndian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM)India
4Ms. Susmita JosephIndian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM)India
5Dr. Rupa Kumar Kolli, IITMIndian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM)India
Sr. No.RIMES TeamOrganizationCountry
1A. R. SubbiahRegional Integrated Multi-hazard Early Warning System (RIMES)Thailand
2G. SrinivasanRegional Integrated Multi-hazard Early Warning System (RIMES)Thailand
3K. J. RameshRegional Integrated Multi-hazard Early Warning System (RIMES)Thailand
4Anshul AgarwalRegional Integrated Multi-hazard Early Warning System (RIMES)Thailand
5Itesh DashRegional Integrated Multi-hazard Early Warning System (RIMES)Thailand
6Tschencho DorjiRegional Integrated Multi-hazard Early Warning System (RIMES)Thailand
7Raihan Haque KhanRegional Integrated Multi-hazard Early Warning System (RIMES)Thailand
8Mitesh V SawantRegional Integrated Multi-hazard Early Warning System (RIMES)Thailand
Sr. No.UK Met TeamOrganizationCountry
1Andrew ColmanUK Met Office (UKMO)United Kingdom
2Rebecca ParfittUK Met Office (UKMO)United Kingdom
3Sarah HolmesUK Met Office (UKMO)United Kingdom
4Tamara JanesUK Met Office (UKMO)United Kingdom

SASCOF-23 Outlook for Seasonal Rainfall and Temperature over South Asia during October to December 2022


Below-normal rainfall is likely during October – December (OND) season 2022 over the extreme southern parts of the South Asia including the islands where climatologically we receive good amount of rainfall during the season. Below normal rainfall is also likely over the northwestern parts of South Asia as well as extreme eastern parts of South Asia which normally receive very low rainfall during OND season. Above normal rainfall is likely over most parts of west, central and northeast regions and remaining area of southern parts of South Asia. Remaining part of the region is likely to experience normal or climatological probability for the seasonal rainfall.

During the season, normal to above normal maximum temperatures are likely over northwest, northeast parts of South Asia including foothills of Himalaya. The maximum temperature is likely to be below normal over the west, central and southern parts of South Asia. The minimum temperature is likely to be above normal over most part of the region except parts of west, northwest and southern parts of South Asia.

This consensus climate outlook for the 2022OND season over South Asia has been developed through an expert assessment of the prevailing global climate conditions influencing the South Asian climate and seasonal forecasts from different climate models around the world. Currently La Niña conditions are prevailing over equatorial Pacific region and negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are prevailing over the Indian Ocean. These parameters are known to influence the climate variability over South Asia. Latest forecasts from many climate models indicate that La Niña conditions are likely to continue up to the end of year and the negative IOD conditions are likely to weaken by the end of year. Careful consideration is also given to other regional and global factors as well as the intra seasonal variability of the region that can affect the rainfall and temperature patterns over the region.For more information and further updates on the seasonal climate outlook on national scale, the respective National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) may be consulted. The Detailed SASCOF Consensus Outlook Statement is available here

The Enhanced SASCOF Outlook is also available here

Photo Gallery


Note: No questionnaires or survey conducted during SASCOF-23 & CSUF